Then, having made my annual visit to the ‘Westminster bubble’ – albeit away from Westminster – I feel an overwhelming urge to restate what I see as a universal truth.
Largely agreeing with Merkel throughout, Schulz made little impact. With a fortnight to go until the 24 September election, it’s now almost certain the Christian Democrats will prevail. Having led her party since 2000, and Europe’s largest economy since 2005, Merkel is set to win another term.
These Brexit negotiations just got serious – and not a moment too soon. The UK is under no legal obligation whatsoever to pay the EU to leave. I’ve never argued we should pay nothing and am not now. We want to exit on good terms, after all. Yet when it comes to the financial side of these Article 50 talks, it is Britain, not the cash-strapped EU, which holds most of the cards.
One reason is that this could be the last hurrah for Janet Yellen. The diminutive Federal Reserve boss, the only woman ever to hold this vital post, could soon be replaced. Her first term expires in February – and President Trump could decide not to reappoint her.
We’ve seen important and, indeed, disturbing news this summer. Media attention over the last week has rightly focused on Charlottesville, Virginia. And what looks like another terrorist attack in Europe – this time Barcelona – now leads the bulletins.
As we move toward Brexit, forging trade links elsewhere makes sense. Helping UK exporters sell into the 80pc-plus of the global economy outside EU sends a powerful signal during these Article-50 talks. An agreement with the world’s biggest economy would be a good start. And to think – Trump’s predecessor had us “at the back of the queue”.
“I don’t see much upside in Brexit,” said Cable six months ago, the man now confirmed as Britain’s most “elderly” party leader since Churchill. “But one is the opportunity for a more rational immigration policy,”
Amidst the pomp of his French visit and the latest installment of “Russia-gate”, last week saw the launch of MAGAnomomics – a new attempt to put the economy at the forefront of American Presidency. “MAGAnomics means sustained 3pc economic growth”, wrote Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s Office of Management and Budget Director, in the Wall Street Journal – combining “economics” with the President’s “Make America Great Again” catchphrase. So what are the prospects for the world’s biggest economy under Trump? Will the US perform well enough for Trump to be more than a one-term President?
The UK is withdrawing from the London Fishing Convention, Environment Secretary Michael Gove announced last week. This was welcome and important. When it comes to fishing, the gains from Brexit are clear, relatively immediate and should appeal to multiple interest groups.
This is, perhaps, hardly surprising. You don’t generally make your career within a large, hierarchical organization if you like thinking “outside the box”. More fundamentally, these “top” institutions are essentially political and strategic in nature – with the strategy determined elsewhere. For all the scientific pretense, resident economists will overwhelmingly serve up what their political masters want to hear.
LIAM HALLIGAN 