I’m writing this from Rome, where Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi just stepped down as leader of the centre-left Partito Democratico. Italian politics, once again, faces chaos.
Renzi previously resigned as Premier, having lost a botched referendum on constitutional change last December. Once tipped as Italy’s political savior, the 42-year old former Mayor of Florence must now win a renewed leadership battle if he is to restore his political credibility.
The oil price collapsed last Monday after an acrimonious meeting of the Opec exporters’ cartel. Having been above $105 a barrel as recently as June 2014, US crude fell to $37.65. That represents a 64pc drop in just 18 months – to the lowest level since the worst of the global financial crisis in February 2009.
Oil plunged again last Thursday, moving below $37 – amid further evidence that Opec’s 12 member states, from the mighty Saudi Arabia to tiny Ecuador, are cracking up. After staying well above $40 a barrel for months, crude has now crashed decisively through that psychological lower bound. Now it’s been breached, there’s widespread speculation crude could tumble much further – maybe even as low as $20.
“Brazil faces worst recession since the 1930s”. “Chinese growth falls to a three-year low”.
The financial press is full of doom-laden headlines about emerging markets (EMs) – which is hardly surprising. After rallying strongly following the 2008 financial crisis, share indices across Asia, Eastern Europe and South America have spent the last few years largely in the doldrums – reflecting not just slower economic growth but also the actions of Western central banks.