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Tag Archives: Bijan Zanganeh

In the absence of a major financial meltdown, oil will end 2016 north of $60 a barrel,” this column stated at the turn of the year. It was a forecasting flourish possibly fuelled by one Christmas brandy too many. With just four months of 2016 to go, though, I’m sticking to my Yuletide view.

Attempting to predict the oil price is crazy. Yet no decent economist can afford not to. The world economy still revolves around oil – used in everything from transport and electricity generation to the production of plastics, synthetics and so much else. And for all the breathless talk about renewables, and the grim inevitability of growing nuclear dependence, we remain addicted to oil.
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“In the absence of a major financial meltdown, oil will end 2016 north of $60 a barrel,” wrote this columnist in early January. I’m sticking to that view. Having sunk to a 13-year low in mid-February, crude prices have since risen by more than 80pc – and last week broke through $50 for the first time since last November.

This significant oil price rise is happening, though, despite and not because of the once all-powerful Opec exporters’ cartel. But that’s not stopping Opec from trying to reestablish itself as the supply-limiting force it once was.

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