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For months, as negotiations on the UK’s relationship with the European Union have become increasingly fraught, our political classes have assumed – asserted even – that the upcoming referendum will be held in the middle of this year.

I’ve never been convinced. I’m not saying an early vote won’t happen, but I do think there’s a high probability this near-ubiquitous mid-2016 assumption will be proved wrong. And that has significant implications, of course, for investment and our broader economy.

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