Starting on a consensual note, I agree with Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, when she said last week that the stuttering global recovery will continue to be “disappointing” in 2016.
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Just twelve months ago, with the UK in danger of triple-dip recession, the IMF reprimanded Osborne for “playing with fire”, urging him to abandon attempts to consolidate Britain’s public finances and speed up government spending instead.
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A “triple-dip”, the UK’s first in modern times, would have driven some very nasty headlines for George Osborne. For now, the Chancellor is no doubt allowing himself a sigh of relief. He will be more than aware, though, that for all his “healing” rhetoric, the UK economy remains extremely fragile.
Just when you hoped it really was “solved”, the “eurozone crisis” has roared back onto the global agenda. Like a dripping tap, a lingering bad smell, the fundamental contradictions at the heart of monetary union can be blanked-out for a while but refuse to go away. The busted banks, the grotesque indebtedness, the inherent contradictions – in recent days they’ve all burst back into view.
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The audience was “top drawer”, the room packed with 500 of the world’s biggest bond market participants, the combined assets under management measured in the trillions of dollars. “Who thinks the upcoming Greek bail-out will be the last, drawing a line under the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis?” asked the senior Euromoney staffer chairing the panel. “Put your hands up”.
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The outlook for the world economy – at least the Western world – seems grim. The International Monetary Fund’s newly updated World Economic Outlook says global growth will be significantly weaker than previously thought, with the eurozone as a whole likely to go into recession, even if another “Lehman moment” is avoided.
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