My Christmas holiday wasn’t entirely spent eating turkey sandwiches and watching television. A sizeable chunk was devoted, instead, to reading European Union Treaties, typing furiously at my keyboard.
The result is “Clean Brexit” – a paper I’ve written with the highly-regarded City economist Gerard Lyons, copies of which are doing the rounds at Westminster.
Theresa May has long refused to give a running commentary on her negotiations with the European Union. Last week, in a moment of high Parliamentary drama, the Prime Minister conceded her government will now publish a “Brexit plan” before triggering Article 50 by March next year.
Having backed Brexit, I’ve always recognized it may be unwise for the government to disclose its desired negotiating outcome. These two statements aren’t linked. However you voted in June, everyone should acknowledge the potential downsides of the UK showing its hand ahead of what could be some extremely hard bargaining.
So, the UK is still growing quite well, despite the country voting to leave the European Union back in June. Our economy expanded, we learnt last week, by 0.5pc between July and September compared to the quarter before. That amounts to a buoyant 2.3pc annual growth rate. So does that mean everything in the UK garden is now rosy? And were Brexiteer-economists like me right? The answers are a definite “no”, and “maybe”.
What is now clear, and accepted by all but the most ardent anti-Brexit campaigners, is that the slew of pre-referendum scare stories warning of a “sudden and considerable fall” in economic activity if we backed Leave just over four months ago were nonsense.
A tumultuous week for the pound. And there could be more to come. Sterling, at the time of writing, is below $1.24 – down from $1.29 last weekend. The markets are properly spooked.
This latest currency fall was sparked early last week, when Prime Minister Theresa May signaled her preference for “hard Brexit”. But then the pound plunged more. Friday’s “flash crash” – which saw sterling touch $1.18, before recovering – followed warnings from French President Hollande that Britain would “pay” for leaving the European Union. That apparently triggered a wave of automatic, computerized sell-offs.