The White House is “100 per cent certain” of striking a trade deal with the UK. Having visited Washington last week, International Trade Secretary Liam Fox is basking in President Trump’s prediction of a “very big and exciting” free-trade agreement.
As we move toward Brexit, forging trade links elsewhere makes sense. Helping UK exporters sell into the 80pc-plus of the global economy outside EU sends a powerful signal during these Article-50 talks. An agreement with the world’s biggest economy would be a good start. And to think – Trump’s predecessor had us “at the back of the queue”.
“The economy, stupid”. It was the campaigning phrase that stuck back in 1992, during Bill Clinton’s successful bid for the White House. Focusing on the economy helped Clinton beat George H.W. Bush in the race for the US Presidency. A quarter of a century on, “the economy stupid” remains a popular political leitmotif, used the world over to stress the importance of living standards in any electoral contest. Donald Trump just brought that sentiment back home.
Amidst the pomp of his French visit and the latest installment of “Russia-gate”, last week saw the launch of MAGAnomomics – a new attempt to put the economy at the forefront of American Presidency. “MAGAnomics means sustained 3pc economic growth”, wrote Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s Office of Management and Budget Director, in the Wall Street Journal – combining “economics” with the President’s “Make America Great Again” catchphrase. So what are the prospects for the world’s biggest economy under Trump? Will the US perform well enough for Trump to be more than a one-term President?
What are grown-up investors to make of relations between Russia and the West? The rhetoric emanating from politicians and media commentators, in the US and UK at least, seems to be drawn from another era. Mainstream British and American newspapers are full of coverage about the Kremlin’s connections to US President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Trump’s former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. Some headlines go into full Cold War retro mode, talking of spy swaps and “Soviet agents”.
Russia’s official media has, typically, responded in spades. Against the background of the Ukraine crisis and related sanctions, accusations of “Kremlin meddling” in the US election have been met with more, even harsher, anti-Western rhetoric from Moscow. Such spiralling paranoia makes it seem like we’re through a bizarre re-run of the halcyon days of McCarthyism and Mutually Assured Destruction.
I’m pleased Theresa May has been talking directly with Donald Trump about the UK-US free trade deal. Everyone with the best interests of the British economy at heart should also be positive – whether they back Remain or Leave and whatever they think of the 45th President.
The US is, on most measures, the biggest economy on earth. Much maligned, sometimes deservedly so, America remains the world’s commercial, technological and financial powerhouse – to say nothing of its military strength.
So, it’s official. Donald Trump is US President. Now the inauguration has happened, the transformation is complete – from fast-talking business-man-turned-reality-TV-star to leader of the free world.
“The Donald” was elected, of course, on a wave of pretty lurid campaign rhetoric. The question now is to what extent he will act on his talk of “mass deportations” and “sky-high tariffs” – and the potential impact on the world’s biggest economy.
The media hype surrounding any US Presidential election campaign doesn’t, in general, encourage serious economic analysis. The astonishing psychodrama of this epic 2016 contest – which reached a new peak, perhaps, during last week’s final television debate – is drowning out almost any meaningful narrative regarding the state of the US economy.
The world is fixated, of course, on the brutal battle between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. This marathon race for the White House, between two incredibly divisive candidates, has cut fissures across the American electorate far deeper than those that have long existed. And there’s still over two weeks to go.