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Only a fool or a liar claims to know where the oil price is going. I like to think I’m neither – although some may disagree. While predicting the future path of crude is almost impossible, the oil price remains the most important economic variable on earth.

So, despite the pitfalls, any self-respecting economist needs to take a view. Mine is that oil is priced some way below its fundamental value, and has lately been artificially deflated by a soaring dollar and excessive fears the Chinese economy is about to implode, based on the dramatic volatility of its relatively small but highly visible stock market.
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